The USMCA Review Is Coming in July: What TN Visa Holders Must Know
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — the trade deal that replaced NAFTA and provides the legal foundation for the TN visa program — faces its mandatory six-year joint review in July 2026. This review, built into the agreement when it was signed in 2020, will determine whether the three member countries extend the USMCA for an additional 16 years or shift to annual reviews that could lead to renegotiation or even termination.
For the tens of thousands of Mexican and Canadian professionals working in the United States on TN visas — and the employers who depend on them — this review carries real implications. While the outright elimination of TN visas is unlikely, any modification to the agreement could affect the list of qualifying professions, application procedures, or the terms under which TN workers are admitted. Here is what you need to know.
What Is the USMCA Joint Review?
Article 34.7 of the USMCA establishes a Joint Review mechanism that occurs every six years. At the review, the three parties assess the operation and impact of the agreement and decide whether to extend it for another 16 years. If any party declines to extend, the agreement enters a period of annual reviews, which creates uncertainty about its long-term continuation. The first review period falls in July 2026, six years after the agreement entered into force on July 1, 2020.
How the USMCA Affects TN Visas
Chapter 16 of the USMCA (Temporary Entry for Business Persons) provides the framework for TN visas. It establishes the list of 64 qualifying professions, sets the basic eligibility requirements, and creates the streamlined admission process that distinguishes TN visas from other work visa categories. The June 2025 regulatory changes that extended TN visa validity to three years for Mexican nationals were implemented within this USMCA framework.
If the USMCA were to be terminated or substantially renegotiated, the TN visa program could be modified, reduced, or eliminated. However, trade agreements are complex instruments with many stakeholders, and the TN visa provisions are just one small component of a much larger deal covering agriculture, manufacturing, intellectual property, digital trade, and labor standards. The most likely scenarios range from full extension (status quo for TN visas) to targeted renegotiation of specific chapters (possible but uncertain impact on TN visas).
Current Tensions That Could Affect the Review
U.S.-Mexico trade relations in 2026 are under strain. Tariff disputes, fentanyl enforcement disagreements, migration policy conflicts, and competition with China for manufacturing investment have created political pressure on all sides. Some U.S. policymakers have expressed interest in using the USMCA review as leverage on immigration enforcement, border security, and drug trafficking issues — areas that extend well beyond the trade agreement’s original scope.
Canada-U.S. relations are similarly complicated, with disputes over dairy tariffs, digital services taxation, and automotive content requirements creating friction. The Canadian government’s own review of the agreement has raised concerns about whether USMCA adequately serves Canadian interests.
These broader geopolitical tensions do not directly target TN visas, but they create an environment where any aspect of the agreement could become a bargaining chip in a larger negotiation.
What TN Visa Holders Should Do Now
Renew your TN status before the review. If your TN visa or status is due for renewal in the coming months, consider renewing early to lock in the maximum three-year validity period. A TN visa issued before any potential changes would remain valid for its full term.
Explore H-1B as a backup. If you are working in a profession that qualifies for both TN and H-1B, consider whether entering the H-1B lottery provides valuable diversification. The H-1B visa is authorized by U.S. statute, not a trade agreement, making it independent of USMCA’s fate. However, the H-1B lottery, wage-weighted selection system, and higher costs are significant considerations.
Begin the green card process if appropriate. If you intend to remain in the United States long-term, starting the permanent residence process now — through PERM labor certification, a National Interest Waiver, or a family-based petition — provides security regardless of what happens to TN visas. The visa bulletin’s current favorable dates make this an especially good time to explore employment-based green cards.
Monitor developments. The Lozano Law Firm will publish updates as the July 2026 review date approaches and as any outcomes are announced. Sign up for our newsletter or check the blog regularly for the latest information.
What Employers Should Do
Audit your TN workforce. Identify all employees currently on TN status and their renewal dates. Assess which positions could be converted to H-1B or other visa categories if TN availability changes.
Develop contingency plans. For key positions held by TN workers, have a backup visa strategy in place. This might include H-1B petitions (subject to the lottery), L-1A intracompany transfer visas (for employees transferring from a related foreign office), or E-2 investor visas (for Mexican national investors or managers of E-2 enterprises).
Consider sponsoring green cards. For TN employees you want to retain long-term, initiating the PERM labor certification process now provides a pathway to permanent residence that is independent of the USMCA. The PERM process takes 12 to 24 months, so starting now positions the case well regardless of what happens in July.
Most Likely Outcomes
Immigration policy analysts and trade experts generally project the following scenario probabilities. Full 16-year extension with no changes to TN provisions is the most likely outcome, since all three countries benefit economically from the agreement and the cost of disruption is high. Extension with targeted modifications to specific chapters (not necessarily Chapter 16 on temporary entry) is possible, particularly around automotive rules of origin, agricultural market access, and digital trade provisions. A shift to annual reviews (if one party declines to extend) is a lower-probability but consequential outcome that would create ongoing uncertainty for the agreement and all its provisions, including TN visas.
The complete termination of USMCA is considered the least likely outcome, as it would disrupt hundreds of billions of dollars in annual trade and harm all three economies. However, the mere possibility underscores the importance of planning for contingencies.
Frequently Asked Questions
If the USMCA is extended, does anything change for TN visas?
If the agreement is extended without modifications to Chapter 16, TN visas continue to operate exactly as they do today. No changes to eligibility, professions, or procedures would occur.
Can the U.S. unilaterally eliminate TN visas?
Modifying or eliminating TN visas within the USMCA framework would require agreement among all three parties. However, the U.S. could potentially impose additional procedural requirements or enforcement measures within its own immigration regulations that effectively restrict TN usage without formally changing the agreement.
Would my current TN visa remain valid if the agreement changes?
Typically, visas and status grants that are valid at the time of issuance remain valid for their stated duration, even if the underlying program changes. However, renewals would be subject to whatever new rules are in effect at the time of renewal.
Should I be worried about the USMCA review?
Worried, no. Prepared, yes. The most likely outcome is an extension that preserves the status quo. But responsible planning means having alternative strategies available, especially if your career or business depends on continued TN visa access.
Plan Ahead With Expert Immigration Counsel
Attorney Alfredo Lozano is Board Certified in Immigration and Nationality Law by the Texas Board of Legal Specialization and a graduate of ITESM (Tecnológico de Monterrey). His understanding of both U.S. immigration law and the Mexican professional landscape makes the Lozano Law Firm uniquely positioned to advise TN visa holders and their employers through the USMCA review period.
With offices in San Antonio, Eagle Pass, and San Angelo, contact us today to review your TN status and develop a comprehensive work visa strategy.
